Cutting Probability Model Explorer
In this work, we computed the probability of a given sequence resulting in successful cleavage using a Bayesian definition of probability. Briefly, we modeled that the number of cleavage events given a number of observed looping events should be Binomially distributed with a cutting probability p. We assume that, a priori, the cleavage probability can be any value between 0 and 1. With this uniform prior probability in hand, we can enumerate the posterior probability of the cleavage probability as
The interactive figure given below allows you to explore how different number of observed cutting events and total observed looping events influences our estimation of the probability of a given value of the cutting probability. This figure was created using the Bokeh plotting library. The code used to generate it can be downloaded from the Code page of this website. An offline version of the figure can be downloaded here.